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2024 SFH Connect Financial Booklunch 6th (8/23)

관리자 │ 2024-10-14

Hello,


This is the Seoul Financial Hub. 


We would like to share the key points from the fourth Financial Booklunch that took place on August 23th.


Please find the details below.


 [Giant Impact] by Journalist Jonghun Park**

 "Analysis of global economic issues such as Inflation, interest rate, exchange rate and high prices"


 -Date and Time: Friday, August 23th, 2024, 11:20 AM - 12:50 PM (1 hour 30 minutes)

 -Location: Seoul Financial Hub (16F, IFC One Tower, 10, Gukjegeumyung-ro, Youngdeungpo-gu, Seoul, Republic of Korea)


Thank you.


SEOUL MY SOUL / SEOUL FINANCIAL HUB 2024 SFH CONNECT 금융 Book Lunch 인플레이션, 금리, 환율, 고물가 등 글로벌 경제 이슈 분석 2024.08.23| 11:20-12:50 여의도 ONE IFC 16층 서울국제금융오피스 박종훈 기자 경제전문기자 본 행사는 무료로 참여 가능하며 선착순 모집 마감합니다
SEOUL MY SOUL / SEOUL FINANCIAL HUB A Lunchtime Session for Filling Yeouido Office Workers with Financial Knowledge 2024 SFH Connect Financial Book Lunch Park Jonghoon, journalist Economic Expert PhD in Economics, Graduate School of Economics, Seoul National University Former Head of the Economic Department, KBS Newsroom Awarded Journalist of the Year at the 2007 Author of The Signal of Wealth, Golden Time for Wealth, 2020: Wealth Disruption, Jonghoon Park's Bold Economy, The Greatest Economic Scam: The Generational War, and many more. Global Economic Issues Analysis: Inflation, Interest/Exchange Rates, and High Prices Since the introduction of paper currency, inflation has always been with us. However, the past 40 years have been a miraculous period with almost no inflation, thanks to the unique phenomenon of globalization. Now that globalization is ending and countries are acting individually, we are likely to experience inflation cycles, repeating every 3-4 years, much like the 1970s. - From a lecture by Park Jonghoon - 1 The Return of Inflation and the Financial Environment in the Second Half of 2024 2 2024 Outlook: Beginning of Declining Interest Rate 3 Al Revolution: Reshaping the Future Economy 4 China's Hegemonic Challenge and the Risk of War 5 Third Energy Transition : Crisis vs. Opportunity
1 The Return of Inflation and the Financial Environment in the Second Half of 2024 De-globalization Aging Population Fiscal Policy Key Causes of Inflation Considering the 4-year inflation cycles of the 1970s, inflation could return in late 2025 or 2026. Global Economic Issues 1 Causes of de-globalization, Branco Milanovic's Elephant Curve. 2 Continuous wage growth due to an aging population. 3 Janet Yellen's issuance of short-term government bonds. 2 2024 Outlook: Beginning of Declining Interest Rate Growth Rate Declines Create Debt to Invest Interest Rate Drop Our country's growth rate will continue to decline. I apologize for stating the obvious, but it is unavoidable due to our demographic structure. However, we will enter the era of medium interest rates after the three big shifts below. 1 China's savings patterns 2 The Fed's money issuance 3 Hegemonic wars and the U.S. economy Global Economic Issues 1 The U.S. fiscal deficit is -6.2% of GDP. 2 Since July 31, the Bank of Japan has raised interest rates. 3 Before the U.S. presidential election, debt issuance to boost stock prices.
3 Al Revolution: Reshaping the Future Economy Al, unlike social media, does not have a network effect, which will lead to price competition! * Network Effect A phenomenon where the value of a product or service increases as the number of users grows. Key Factors in Al Price Competition Current GPU Future Energy After going through a phase of disillusionment, the companies that create touchpoints with consumers, develop user interfaces, and generate profits will dominate the future. 4 China's Hegemonic Challenge and the Risk of War Conditions for a Fierce fight 1 When economic and productive power supports it. 2 When economic decline is anticipated. According to a study by a British institution (IMF, Capital Economics), China's GDP will never surpass that of the U.S. The book Danger Zone warns that as of 2022, China may invade Taiwan within the next 10 years. Key to Sustaining a War: Food and Oil China is turning Tianfu Greenway parks into farmland and is attempting to secure oil through pipelines from Myanmar and Pakistan. 5 Third Energy Transition: Crisis vs. Opportunity Battery transition will be delayed by more than 5 years. 1 Governments are finding it difficult to provide subsidies due to fiscal burdens 2 Inflation is slowing the transition. Crisis Oil companies, aware of the energy transition, have reduced investments. If the battery transition is delayed by more than five years, this will lead to a future oil supply shortage. Opportunity The delay in the energy transition opens up opportunities for the development of hydrogen energy. The current economic turmoil could be the moment for followers to seize opportunities.
 
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